The Taiwan market is being closely watched because players will use points, not real money, testing whether a market’s accuracy is undercut by the absence of a profit motive to get predictions right. (Taiwan’s antigambling laws preclude using real money.) Although funny-money markets have worked in the past, their reliability is still in doubt, experts say. So far, the Center for Prediction Markets points to a victory by the China-friendly candidate Ma Ying-jeou. Time will tell if it’s got the right guy.
